Run/Pass Balance, Game Theory, and the Passing Premium Revisited

A few years ago I wrote some of my most popular posts, entitled the "Run/Pass and a Little Game Theory," with follow-up responses to comments One, and Two. (Some of my best ideas are in the responses.)

Although I can't say exactly that they were inspired by my work - though these posts were released in mid-2006 - there has been much serious work done in the areas since.

First, one of the phenomena I identified was that in a world without risk, coaches ought to be neutral between running and passing, and so should call them in whatever mixture produces the most yards per play. But I identified a "passing premium," which refers to the fact that in the real world, passes tend to average more yards per play than runs, and coaches generally do not throw the ball more to correct for this perceived imbalance. I argued that this made sense because passes are generally riskier than runs, but teams might still be out of wack one way or another. The other side of the coin was that supposedly imbalanced teams, be they run first or pass first teams, were often very much balanced in their play selection than people give them credit for.

Well, this idea has engendered much recent scholarship and commentary, including two articles in the Journal of Quantative Analysis in Sports:

- Benjamin Alamar, The Passing Premium Puzzle.

- Duane Rockerbie, The Passing Premium Puzzle Revisited.

- Sabermetric Research, NFL Passing Premium Puzzle Revisited.

The other phenomena I touched on in those articles was that the choice between running and passing, in terms of maximizing your expected gain, was not absolute. Instead it was a game theory problem. In other words, just because passes tends to average more than rushes does not mean that you should call 100% passes. If you pass more and more, the other team will shift their strategy. But even more importantly, the other team will adjust its strategy based on your intrinsic payout structure: If you are an excellent passing team, they will obviously call more pass defenses (or add an extra defensive back, etc) but if your payout structure changes - i.e. an excellent running back returns from injury - that does not mean that you should automatically run more and more, because the other team, knowing that he is back, will be forced to counter your running back. The exact change in optimal run/pass balance can change, but the upshot is that your passing game will often become more attractive when a great running back comes back, because the defense must shift its strategy. So when TV announcers say that just because you have a new or better running back, then that team must automatically run the ball more, do not believe it.

This idea too has engendered commentary (again, not necessarily as a direct result of my posts, but I wrote about it some years ago and I'm happy to see the ideas proliferate):

- Advanced NFL Stats, Game Theory and Run/Pass Balance.

- Advanced NFL Stats, Passing Paradox. (I mention this article too because it cites some of my older work, which attempted to account for the riskiness of runs and passes and find their optimal mix by using the Sharpe ratio from financial economics. See also here, and here.)

I look forward to more and more analysis on these topics. Football is by far the most interesting sport to analyze, but also the most difficult. So, so many variables. Each play is discrete, but interconnected to the others in intricate ways (hence, game theory). Further, to analyze it requires a certain basic competency in football, statistics, probability, and economics (along with time) that few possess. As great as Football Outsiders is, they have produced very little that is useful to the typical coach. But the ideas here transcend the fan and the practitioner. I am sure there is more to come.

Links to my past articles:

Run/Pass Balance and a Little Game Theory
Run/Pass Balance - Response to Comments I
Run/Pass Balance - Response to Comments II
The Sharpe Ratio for Football - I
The Sharpe Ratio for Football - II
The Sharpe Ratio for Football - III

Juicy Couture: Something Looks Familiar

Whenever I go shopping, I can't help but say things like, 'This Zara top looks very Prada,' or 'Hmm, this shop is filled with Marni-esque stuff.' (Although I have been trying to voice it out loud less.) This year, while browsing through Juicy Couture accessories online, I can't help but see the similarities between the Juicy bags and bags by other designers. Now I'm not saying Juicy copied other designers. There are just elements of the bags that remind me of other bags.
The first thing I thought was, this looks like a Goyard bag. But after staring at the bag closely for awhile, it occured to me the print is of little puppies. And after staring at it for even longer, it starts to remind me of LAMB bags, which I didn't think was totally original either. What a web! (Or maybe just a triangle.)
The Gucci one is too cutesy for me and the Juicy one is too preppy and seems to be made of terry cloth (-says it all.) While the two technically have very different designs, they superficially look similar to me.
Reminds me of a Gucci F/W07 bag. I think it may even have been featured in an ad. Does anyone remember it and think so, or did I just imagine it?

It doesn't look exactly like a Gucci bag but that gold, circle metal piece in the middle is like the metal piece on a lot of the Gucci 08 bags.

Again, it's the metal plate on this Juicy bag that reminds me of another designer's bags. Can anyone guess?
I love this type of gold hardware that looks like a lock on handbags. The designer bag that has a lot of gold fake locks is by... it starts with the same letter as the one above.
This one is sort of obvious. One is by Dior and one is by Juicy. One is super expensive and one is relatively affordable. To be fair, both are equally cute, though not exactly my style.

Note that I am not saying Juicy copied the other designers. Nowadays with so many choices and designers out there, designers just seem to be inspired by other designers' designs or elements of the designs a lot. It reminds me of Derek Lam saying "There's no such thing as original design...... In a way, that's what fashion's about." Afterall, it's why certain designers are held higher than others, and why some designer collections are considered 'directional' in terms of trend. Anyway, it was fun just to look at the bunch of Juicy accessories together like this, wasn't it?

Image Credit: http://www.saksfifthavenue.com/, http://www.shopbop.com/, http://www.eluxury.com/

SS08 Trend- Bronze and Blue Hues

One of my absolute favourite things to do every season is to scout out the latest eye shadow palettes. They are almost always drool worthy, making me want a piece of everything, even though I already have more make-up than I need.
This season the consensus for eye shadow seems to be bronze and blue hues. This look above from Sephora is the epitome of these two shades.
Smashbox calls it Desert Chic, with these Heat Wave (left) and Oasis (right) palettes.
Stila (left) just calls it their limited edition summer palette, while Lancome (right) calls it the Brazilian colors.
Shu Uemura has something similar with their Fleur de Rose (left) and Fleur de Source (right) palettes from their 25th Boutique Birthday Make-up Collection. I tried out the look for the Fleur de Rose palette, and besides bronze they also seem to favor a tinge of pink/red. The colors go on really strongly. The pink/red doesn't exactly make me look like somebody punched me (I asked), but let's just say that pink/red, dark purple and bronze (the suggested combo) is not exactly the most flattering colors for my fair skin tone. I think this Fleur de Rose palette has potential though, if you use only one or two colors at a time.
Other brands favouring the metallic bronze trend are Bobbi Brown and Laura Mercier. Bobbi Brown also has a pink tinge, with their Bronzed Pink Look using the Bronze Pink metallic shade above (left). Laura Mercier has these really cute eye color pots (right) for their Gold Digger collection (they come up with all sorts of names for bronze....), that has an eye shadow shade AND a complimenting shade of their loose powder. I tried it and combined together, they go on extremely strongly. This is not for the faint heart. As much as I liked the double decker combo, it was definitely not my style.

To be honest, none of these bronze and blue palettes are really my style. Perhaps with the exception of the Fleur de Rose, none of the colors in these palettes seem to go together really well. Maybe it is just me, but despite the "look" shown above from Sephora, I just cannot imagine what I would do with these colors. It is a sad day indeed when this season's eye make-up palettes fail to excite me.

Image Source: Sephora, Shu Uemura, Bobbi Brown and Laura Mercier

Just Admiring the Resort 09 Collections: Stella McCartney

While I was looking for more to blog for about the Resort 09 collections, I've suddenly come to realise that with so many collections a year, the whole 'flipping through style.com' thing really isn't as fun or exciting as before now. While the clothes are still pretty, I just can't get through all the looks for the very long Resort collections, like Chanel, Dior and DvF. And honestly, none of the collections completely grabbed my attention -that is until I saw Stella McCartney's collection.

Admittedly, I was surprised I liked it so much since I usually feel so-and-so about her designs, but there's just something I really liked about this collection. Maybe because her presentation was so refreshing -it wasn't on a typical runway, and it was set outdoors without the usual overdone glam and setup. Everything looked so natural. You can really imagine through the park and in the city in these clothes. They have just the right touch of put-together casualness and stylishness.


The double-breasted jacket with skinny pants combo is nothing new but it looks young and super sleek here. And I'm usually not a fan of jumpsuits but it looks oddly cool and glamorous and again, sleek.


These two dresses are so cute and look so easy to wear. I like how the designs are special enough to make the person to look different but not too out-there. Plus the colours are so sharp.


One of the key elements to the effortless casual and sleek look: neutral colours. Ok, so most of us out here can't actually fit into those tight Capri or carry off those loose, tight-at-the-ankles pants, but they look so cool on the models. And I love the androgynous of the tops.


Imagine walking in the city in these outfits next summer (or if you can replicate them, this summer) -uber-stylishness! I've got to figure out a way to imitate the outfit on the right -it's such an amazing combination of girliness -the loose, bow tie blouse -and androgynous -the long blazer.


What did you think of the Stella McCartney collection? Which Resort collection was your favourite?


Image Credit: www.style.com

Just Admiring the Resort 09 Collections: A Few Favourites

Even though the Resort collections are becoming more and more important, they don't seem to have the directional importance that greatly infleunce trends. But the clothes are usually also a lot more practical and relateable. So this year I actually looked through most of the collection on style.com and picked out my favourite outfits:

3.1 Phillip Lim

As usual, his collection is very loveable. Most of the clothes look so young, modern and perfect for people who have the parties to go to (and the money to spend.)

These day dresses are so cute. I love the colour combinations -of the jacket with the navy dress and of the light green dress with the dark green belt. I'm really loving the long jacket with mini dress combination at the moment.

Phillip Lim's cocktail dresses never disappoint. They look so customer-friendly and imagine if you had loads of events to attend about town, then the dresses look like they'll be suitable for so many dresses.

Nina Ricci

Everything is so delicate and so etheral looking (-maybe it's just the models,) with a bit of edge.

Lanvin

The Lanvin collection was great to ooh and ahh over as usual, but there's a bit too much of eveningwear and expensive dresses to truly imagine them being worn by myself in real life. I love the loose-fitting, silk, white jacket with those large pockets (on the right.) It's so casual yet cool and luxurious at the same time.

There were a lot of sharp colours, as expected from Lanvin, although it seems to be the general trend for next year too, especially yellow and orange.

OK, this post is obviously not so much of a fashion analysis post and more of a ooh-this-is-so-pretty post. These clothes somehow look so much cooler and more modern than this season's floral dresses.

Image Credit: www.style.com