Friday 26 August 2005

The Shallow Cross and the Holy Trinity from Bunch

Making Passes Look Alike Part 2

As discussed in the last article, sending all your receivers vertically is often very difficult to pattern read for zone defenders, safeties, as well as the very disruptive rovers/floaters. However, any quick look at the football landscape reveals that many, many teams successfully use lots of shallow crosses and flat routes. Given the discussion and some doodling on paper this is a surprise. These routes are almost silly: aside from being simple to jump and wall off for many defenders, they often give away what the one or two vertically releasing receivers will do.

However, my point is not that these routes are irrelevant, yet teams should be careful how they use them and it is possible that they are overused. For example, many coaches teach the passing game based on the reaction of one defender. For example, on the curl/flat combination shown below, the coach will say that if the linebacker widens with the flat, throw the curl. However, if the defense wants to, it can always double cover the curl and cover the flat one on one and take it away.



So, briefly, why do teams run these types of routes? Of first importance is who they are run against; often it is linebackers and safeties, who are weaker pass defenders. Second, the throws themselves are often easier than other throws, which can require more timing and the ability to squeeze the ball between defenders--many of these throws are simply underneath defenders.

Third, structurally, they are easy to understand and often easy to read. While this is a fear if the defense is too good, again, simplicity often favors the offense. If I send a player immediately to the flat, then I can quickly see the defense's reaction. If I send two receivers vertical it is not apparent to the QB who the D will eventually leave uncovered.

Lastly, while they (usually) are poor at threatening vertically, they can still be packaged together to create rubs, picks, and mismatches. Whether in the traditional bunch set or simply a shoot route by a running back versus a slower linebacker, we can all envision circumstances that make them effective. Therefore these routes, often better than 3 or 4 vertically releasing receivers are good at causing the defense to put itself in a numbers bind (I.E. three defenders to cover two receivers or four defenders to cover three receivers. This is what can win football games from a strategy point of view.) The point of this article is to show some of the right ways to use them and some of the proper considerations.

I'll begin with the shallow cross series as I have run it, which has a few variations and has come under a few names, including the West Coast "drive" concept, or just shallow cross in mine. It is a simple inside-out read for the QB, who reads the shallow cross, to a curl or in-breaking route, to the flat (or sometimes a wheel route). Sometimes there are backside reads as well, but for now I will just show it with a post route and a backside flat to control the outside linebacker for the crossing receiver.



In the lower left is how Purdue runs the play, which is basically the same even if the techniques are slightly different.

However, no matter how you dress it up, the play does not exist in a vacuum. In my earlier article I talked about the same plays being run from multiple formations. Yet, the D cannot be totally fooled if every time one guy comes in, another pushes vertical, and another goes to the flat. It simply becomes recognition and reaction for the defense; in other words they can pattern read you.

Quickly, I'll show a few other combinations of routes that look similar. First, the now famous mesh/snag/triangle route:



And the follow/angle combination:



Shallow, snag, and follow (which is what I call them--insert Shakespeare's famous question here) form what I call the "Holy Trinity", which are imperative for any good passing team, particularly if you plan to use the bunch packages. Intuitively, you can see the advantage to using these together, but it becomes more apparent if I draw it first as what the stems look like on each play, and then as a branch of possibilities:



Since that looks a bit messy, here is each route individually:



The defense cannot pattern read anymore, because every play is like a kind of dynamic route tree. You've achieved the same equilibrium with these short routes as you had when all your receivers vertically released.

In this case you can still get double teamed, but they will be unable to jump the underneath routes for fear that a shallow may become a whip or that a shoot route may become a wheel or an angle route.

Conclusion

All this is part of making your offense cohesive. Again, no play exists in a vacuum. You do this for the same reason that you run draw plays or that you run your play action passes off of your favorite run plays instead of plays you don't even run. They keep the defense honest and make you difficult to defend. If I have five pass plays but they all look markedly different, I become easier to defend. If I can mix in all the formations, substitutions, and then, even if the defense accurately reads run or pass and can identify the receivers, yet still can't tell if there is a whip or a shallow coming, or a corner or a curl (or a post), then I have been successful.

It doesn't really matter how you integrate it into your system, whether they are separate plays or tags or whatnot, but the important thing is to make it difficult for the D and easy to teach. For the last two diagrams I will show you how Spurrier integrates this same idea into his two favorite pass plays (which, to add to the confusion, are built off his favorite run play, the lead draw).

First, Spurrier loves the curl/corner read play, which I discussed in this article and the common dig/post pass, shown below:



Laid on top of each other, it looks like this to the defense:



He's been doing this for years. Constant three way threats all around, the threat of multiple vertical receivers, including post and corner routes, are all staples of the Old Ball Coach's offense.

Google Pt 2

From the Wall Street Journal Free Online Section:

Google's Stock Sale Mystery Is
Simply Solved: There Are Buyers
August 24, 2005; Page A2

(See Corrections & Amplifications item below.)

Google's decision to issue $4 billion in new stock has been greeted with surprise and stupefaction by the army of analysts who are overpaid to divine happenings within the Googleplex.

It is an impenetrable mystery, they say. The company already has nearly $3 billion in cash; why does it need more? Are the Googlers planning to build a global wireless network? Dive headlong into Internet telephony? Construct an elevator into space? And why, oh why, the strange numerology -- selling exactly 14,159,265 shares, which every educated 13-year-old recognizes as the digits to the right of the decimal point in the mathematical term pi.

Hello?

Let's try a little test. If I offer you $100,000 for your Honda Civic, how would you respond? Here are your choices:

a) "No, thank you, my checking account is already full."

b) "Maybe, but let me look around first to see if there is another car I'd like to buy."

or

c) "Here are the keys."

If you answered a) or b), you have the makings of a Google analyst.

Is Google preparing for the bubble to burst? WSJ's Alan Murray discusses the stock sale mystery.

There is no mystery here, folks. When companies think their stock is undervalued, they buy it back. The Googlers are in the opposite fix. Their stock is overvalued, so what do they do?

Sell more. Quickly. Before sanity returns to the marketplace...

In recent months, the top Googlers have sold off nearly $3 billion of their own holdings. These insider sales all have been on the up and up, conducted under a so-called 10b5-1 plan that allows them to sell a predetermined number of shares over a given period. Diversifying their riches in this way would be a wise strategy for the Google boys under any circumstances. But it is particularly wise if you suspect your stock has a touch of hot air...

None of this is to suggest Google is anything other than a very good company. The Google search has become a central part of modern life -- I did five of them in the course of writing this column. And by linking advertising with search, Google has found a gold mine.

But will revenue from that gold mine continue to increase indefinitely at the 35%-a-year gallop implied by current valuations? I doubt it. More importantly, the Googlers themselves seem to doubt it. And they are smart guys.

Thursday 25 August 2005

QB Drill and Thoughts on Practice

QB Drill - Quick Feet

Get a line on the practice field. Get the ball shoulder high, ready to throw. On your call have them quickly patter their feet back and forth on both sides of the line, rapid fire. Do this with them in various positions, stepping over it in different ways. When you show hands they must immediately throw the ball to you (or other QB or manager). Must be able to have quick feet and set quickly, always under control.

Brief Thoughts for Good Practices and Prep:

1. Simplify your handouts and playbooks. Can you fit everything that each position has to know onto two sides of a sheet of paper? What about one side? Double spaced?

I read an article where Norm Chow said at BYU he created a big power-point presentation about his offense and put it on CD and distributed it (which is already light-years ahead of what other coaches are doing). He realized it was "a bit long", so he put in a slide at the end with his phone number saying, "If anyone is still awake and reading this last slide, you can call Coach Chow for a $100 reward." According to his story, one player called: the all-american center who was also a 4.0 student.

The point? If even power-point presentations are too long, don't even think about dumping a big playbook on the kids. As a colleague and friend of mine used to say, "playbooks are just something for one coach to turn to another and say 'look how big my playbook is'. The kids rarely get anything from them."

2. Explain principles, gameplans, rules, and even some techniques in the classroom, not on the practice field. Time on the practice field is poorly spent with everyone standing in their equipment trying to listen to you speak (assuming they can even hear you). This may mean that you are not spending enough time in the classroom. If you coach high school, the time right after school before practice is best. The kids are in learning mode (whether they admit they are or not). After practice (an 8-10 hour day depending on school and practice length) they will not focus well.

3. In reference to point one: the field is for reps, reps, reps. Spend some time walking through the things you've installed in the classroom, but quickly pick up the pace--always stay moving--and just rep out the kinks, always demanding great technique.

4. Use the time before and after practice to hone the little things that aren't necessary for the full team, such as QB center snaps and certain timing for the passing game.

Google is King of the Hill (For Now)

Had some updating problems so a couple of these posts are a bit late.

According to last Friday's Wall Street Journal:

"Google said it plans to sell 14.2 million shares of stock, valued at $4 billion. The surprise move about how the Web-search company might plan to use the proceeds, which would more than double its cash balance. Google shares closed down $5.11 at $279.99, still more than three times their IPO price... was characteristically tight-lipped... Google said it intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for "general corporate purposes, including working capital and capital expenditures, and possible acquisitions of complementary businesses, technologies, or other assets." ...

Amid all the mystery, the tech company seemed to leave a clue that suggest the size of the offering wasn't arbitrary by stipulating that the number of shares Google plans to sell is 14,159,265. Those are the first eight digits which follow the decimal in the value of pi (3.14159265)...

The share price has soared since [the intiial public offering], as the company has consistently surpassed analysts' expectations for its earnings."

Apart from the fact that my site still doesn't seem to show up in google searches despite the friendliness of all other search engines, Google's success is undeniable. However, it is literally impossible for me to justify purchasing the stock at its current levels. This is not to say that I am saying that it must go down--it will probably continue to go up for some time--but I have no way of predicting when it will go down. Moreover, at its current P/E (price to earnings ratio) of 82.74, according to Yahoo! finance, the company's profits would need to quadruple over the next several years, and then its earnings growth would need tos stay quite high in perpetuity.

However, two things still jump out. The company continues to do new, unique, and infinitely interesting things. Just the other day I was lost and I text messaged Google's SMS service, and within moments I received detailed directions back to my cell phone. Google maps and Google earth . Google continues to turn a profit, though I have not analyzed what its biggest sources of money are. It is also amazing that this is a company with only 3000 employees. Their market capitalization is larger than Time-Warner. This boggles the mind. To remain ahead though they must create more barriers to entry for their key businesses.

In the end, what the future holds is unknown, though my portfolio will probably be sitting on the sidelines (though with such a large and growing market cap my index funds hold plenty of Google). Microsoft is trying to rev up its competition, but Google appears to be so nimble, and so formidable and amorphous opponent, that they are literally just having fun, picking numbers of shares to sell based on pi.
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