Saturday 29 November 2008

Ctrl BG: A Shortcut to Financial News 11/29

Hope everyone is having a great Thanksgiving weekend and got some great bargains yesterday! With the official start of the holiday season, the markets are also looking a bit brighter. Kind of.

On Monday, Citigroup was bailed out from its recent troubles, with a $20 billion capital injection from TARP in exchange for preferred shares and a government agreement to guarantee over $300 billion of their troubled assets. The shares went from $3.77 last Friday (as I remember, but could be a bit off) to $8.29 yesterday. It would've been an easy way to double your money quick! Citi was simply too big and international to be allowed to fail.

On Tuesday, the latest economic data were released, citing a 0.5% decline in GDP from July-September, more than the 0.3% announced a month ago. Home prices also dropped a whooping 17.4% from a year ago, a record decline. Along with this bad economic data however, the Fed also announced a new $800 billion program to support asset-backed securities including consumer loans and mortgage-backed securities:
  • $100 billion to buy up debt issued by government-sponsored mortgage enterprises Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks
  • $500 billion to buy up mortgage securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae
  • $200 billion facility to support consumer finance, including student, auto, and credit card loans and loans backed by the federal Small Business Administration
Designed as a life line for consumers, it is supposed to help consumers get home, car and credit card loans easier. I haven't figured out all the implications of this program is. I am still astounded by the sudden $800 billion splurge. Last time they announced a splurged $700 billion, there were long congress hearings and deliberations for at least a week. Where was the hearing and deliberation here (or have I just been unaware of the politics?)? Regardless, this has run the financial crisis tab to $7.36 trillion- double what was spent on WW2 adjusted for inflation!

Overseas, the latest headline to up the pirate fiasco last week (not that it has gone away), is the terrorist attack in Mumbai, India. I thought that Mumbai and Delhi were pretty civilized and safe these days with their strong economic growth and development. That is why I was so shocked to hear that the city was attacked by terrorists who randomly shot at people on the streets and hijacked 2 of the most luxurious hotels there, the Taj Mahal and the Oberoi, and a Jewish center, taking and killing many hostages! The latest death toll as of Saturday evening was at least 183. The terrorists, were well trained and in their 20s. They arrived in Mumbai by boat and the whole thing appeared to be very well planned. They suspect that the gunmen are from Pakistan and that this may have something to do with the dispute in Kashmir.

Wednesday 26 November 2008

Happy Turkey Day

While you wait for Thanksgiving dinner, here is something to oogle over.....Happy Turkey day everyone!

Image Source: Net a Porter

Tuesday 25 November 2008

Saks Girl

I think I need to convert to Saks girl, because they are officially my favourite department store this season. After having walked through Barneys and Bloomies (judging from the crowd, I assume Neiman Marcus to be the same), I can officially say that Saks is offering the BEST deals this sale season! Earlier this month (when I was pondering over my pink skirt), they had that weekend of extra 40% off already on sale items. While everyone else is currently doing that however, Saks has moved on to taking 50% off already on sale items, there are also a LOT more on sale items too! This sale began last week (privately) for Saks card holders and I heard the Saks New York was flooded with customers, literally fighting over each other for the latest stocks as they unpacked the boxes. This week it is open to everyone and it's craaaazy (I believe they are having a "black week" instead of black friday, so better get there early!).

To begin with, the traffic on their website must be phenomenal, because the website is constantly down and I'm led to a "Sorry we're experiencing technical problems" page every few clicks. And when I DO get onto the page, it appears that many sizes are already out!
Luckily for me, Saks Fifth in Chicago is not exactly the busiest department store in town (this honor belongs to Nordstroms and Bloomies) and there were still some stuff left in my size (kind of) when I visted today. So I swiped this Rebecca Taylor dress for 1/3 of the price!! I believe it was 40% off and then another 50% off. I was considering it when it was at 40% off, but when I saw it was another 50% off, it was almost a no brainer. It's not super special, but if you look at it more closely, it has mini dark purple polka dot prints on it in felt. And when you swirl, the dress swirls with you. It just feels so cute and fun! The back is also a racer back design, which I thought was very intriguing. I am super happy with this find (besides the fact that I had to get it in a 4 instead of a 2, but I figure that the dress is supposed to be a bit loose!).
What got me super psyched and smiling all the way home and then dancing around wearing them like a crazy person (in the privacy of my apartment of course) though were these Stuart Weitzman pumps (except mine are actually sling backs). I've been eying them for a week now, ever I caught sight of them on the sales rack. I asked HG what she thought and we agreed that they were very classic looking pumps and would be worth it (it was at 40% off back then). So today when I passed the shoe floor and saw that the racks (and the whole floor for that matter) was literally empty, I had to stop by and check out my shoes. Lo and behold, they were also another 50% off. I was SO psyched, I immediately picked them up and tried them on even though the store was closing then. Unfortunately they only had a size 5.5 left (I'm a 6). But since they're sling backs, I didn't think half a size mattered as I can adjust the straps. Also, I tried them on and made sure that my feet isn't sticking out the back (a big no no). While I was waiting for the sales guy to get me the full pair, I watched women all around me in a flurry grabbing and trying on shoes, furiously sweeping up 70% off Jimmy Choo boots and Louboutins in a mad rush to buy all they can before the sales people refuse to serve us. It was quite an amazing sight. THIS was what I'd imagined black friday to be- I guess there won't be much left now for black friday (we asked and they're not planning to restock, they've been on this mode all week). It's a good thing I got to my pumps on time!

It's amazing what a good bargain can do for one's constitution. As you can tell, I am still super hyped about it :D

Image Source: Saks

Smart Notes - Nov. 25, 2008

1. Woody and Bo: War as They Knew It

The New York Times this weekend had a review of a new book about Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler. The review and I gather the book place the two men in the socio-political climate that they operated in, with the book's main thesis being the interesting dynamic of having these authoritarian, almost statist football coaches and programs located on campuses that had begun bustling with counter-culture and anti-war movements. There are a couple good anecdotes from the review:

The defensive lineman Pete Newell skipped the momentous 1969 antiwar rally in Washington to make a road game in Iowa. After­ward, Schembechler praised him before the players for being “out there in Iowa City with the rest of the team, and not in Washington with the damn hippies where he really wanted to be.”
And

An amusing running joke in the book centers on his assistant coaches’ struggle to find the team Friday night pregame movies that didn’t subvert traditional values. (The years 1969-78 did not constitute a Hayes-friendly era in American film.) One assistant was relieved of this duty after picking “Easy Rider,” which he thought was about a motorcycle race. The mention of lesbianism in “Slap Shot” prompted Hayes to shout, “This is TRASH!,” berate the thea­ter manager and storm back to the hotel.

The line between coaching, and culture, between developing football players and developing men, has always been there. This site is dedicated to a lot of strategy and Xs and Os, but anyone who has ever played, well, anything, knows that coaches do not solely teach the sport that they coach, they teach themselves. Without diving into any of the tensions of that time, it is obviously true that coaching takes on odd and difficult dynamics when the kids they coach grow up in climates markedly different than their own, or for college coaches, the campus's climate.

For Hayes, it eventually caught up with him, in one of coaching's oldest storylines (though rarely played out so dramatically):

In Rosenberg’s most evocative passage, players from Hayes’s 1968 national championship squad return to campus for a 10th-­anniversary reunion, and are shocked at the lack of respect the current team shows the man they once feared. The decline of authority had finally brought down Woody Hayes, along with so many other institutions of the time. In this sense, he was ultimately prescient.

As a final note, the thing that most surprised me about the review was that it begins with the reviewer, Jonathan Chait, mentioning that he took a college course called "Theory, Strategy and Practice of Football," taught by Michigan's coaching staff. I have to say, unfortunately for me, they didn't offer that course where I went to school.

2. Oklahoma's clobbering of Texas Tech

So Oklahoma destroyed Texas Tech, 65-21. Not a total surprise that OU won, or even that they won decisively, but I can't say too many predicted that it would just be a beatdown for the ages. Lots of theories spun about why it was such a blowout. I've boiled down the possible explanations to five.

  1. #1. Oklahoma simply has far superior talent, and any other result would have been a surprise.

  2. #2. Oklahoma has figured out the Airraid offense for good, and they simply had Tech's number. The offense will not work against Texas Tech; return your Airraid DVDs to the store.

  3. #3. Texas Tech's defense was overmatched, and no offense could have kept up the pace with how OU ran over, through, and between Tech's hapless defenders.

  4. #4. Texas Tech's defense was overmatched, and to have kept pace with how OU ran over, through, and between Tech's hapless defenders, Tech's Airraid offense would have required an absolutely perfect game from Harrell, and he was not perfect, though not terrible.

  5. #5. Oklahoma simply prepared better than Texas Tech in the two weeks leading up to the game.

To Airraid aficionados (i.e. the coaches who put their stock behind the offense but not the team), the favorite answer seems to be #1: this way when Tech beat Texas and Okie St it was because of their great schemes, but when they lost to OU it was because they had inferior talent. I don't think it is so easy. Texas Tech has more playmakers and good skill guys than people give them credit for; recruiting rankings alone can't be the difference. That said, clearly Oklahoma, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines, had a decided advantage.

To traditionalists tired of hearing about Leach's offense and the high-flying Airraid with Crabtree, Harrell, et. al, #2 is appealing. To them, it was an example of a turning back of the clock with respect to all this offense-shotgun-nonsense, and instead OU got behind the center and handed the ball off in front of a nation enamored with the shotgun-spread. Further, the storyline is that Stoops, Venables, and others basically have Leach's number, they've figured the offense out, and don't expect all that stuff to work against them. Stoops even reinforced this storyline after the game, by noting that most games between Tech and OU haven't been close. But this too is overblown. The game wasn't a referendum on the offense, it was a battle between two teams. OU clearly has a talent advantage of some kind, and although the offense didn't do nearly enough to even approach winning, it was only a few bad drives before the game was 21-0 and was basically out of reach.

That said, there's a kernal of truth to Stoops' theory about knowing that offense. As I've pointed out before, Leach ran his offense at OU exactly how he wanted. If OU does "get" Leach's offense, he doesn't get it in a way that another team could just pop in the tape and pick up. The Airraid, as much as it is certain schemes -- and no doubt OU's defense sat in zone a lot of the night working on their ability to pattern read the traditional Airraid concepts -- but the Airraid is an approach to football as much as it is an offense. If the OU guys have this heightened familiarity, it's not just schemes, it's knowing how Leach runs a practice, how they practice screens, indeed, how he approaches the game. Again, I don't think OU has the offense or Leach figured out once and for all (I mean, Tech did beat OU the year before and scored over thirty on them), but I can't completely discount this.

Regarding #5, I can't really say. I think Tech came out flat and got overwhelmed. I think OU used its time well, but it's hard to say that Tech just didn't prepare correctly.

#3 and #4 are interesting. This was a team loss by Tech; it can neither be laid at the feet totally of the defense or offense. Guys who love the offense try to blame the defense; guys who hate the offense (or at least hate the hype) try to lay it on the O. The defense was essentially not there, but the offense also turned it over leading directly to scores. I honestly think #4 is onto something, but not necessarily anything that revolutionary.

I haven't been able to break the tape down exactly for this game, but it did seem like there were open receivers and the protection was not horrible. Harrell, Tech's quarterback, was certainly not awful, but I don't think he was all that great. And the fact is that in this offense, against superior talent, the quarterback must be flawless. To score a touchdown on any drive Harrell was required to identify and squeeze in seven yard pass after seven yard pass. It's not easy to do that flawless over and over again. On the other hand, Bradford for OU was required to manage the game, hand it off, and run some play action and take some downfield shots. He missed a little bit, but hit more than enough. His receivers were often wide open, usually because the defense could not contain both the run and the pass.

But is this to say that the old-school, traditional offenses are better? Not necessarily. OU had more talent, good schemes, and good weapons. Tech's defenders couldn't stop anything, so every time they overcompensated OU made them pay. As I said, Tech's QB had to play flawlessly; he did not; the game got out of hand quickly. Yet look at the NFL: almost every game is very competitive between teams with largely even talent, and it seems like every game is decided either by quarterback play or the lines.

So again, nothing revolutionary. If you're going to run a spread, you must have a great quarterback. This is true if you are a running spread or passing spread. If Tim Tebow was knocked out for the season, how different would things be in the National Title picture? When Tech beat OU last year, Sam Bradford was knocked out. Similarly, though less black and white, quarterback play, in modern offenses, must be excellent-to-perfect to consistently win games. Tech has had that most of the year from Harrell, certainly so in the biggest games. They did not have it against OU. This is not to say that he put in a poor showing, but if your offense requires perfection, you can bank on not getting it every single week, though as I said, this is a problem not unique to the Airraid offense Leach runs.

Monday 24 November 2008

The "S Dress"

Just because HG is taking a break from blogging doesn't mean that we've stopped overanalyzing fashion in our free time (our gmail chain frequently goes above the 100 limit). Our latest topic of obsession?
I like to call it the "S dress," because when HG first showed me, it reminded me of S. And when we showed it to other friends, they also thought it looked like something S would wear. I guess we all had the same look in mind- the two toned dress S wore to the Dean's dinner party at Yale (btw, it is a totally inappropriate dress for a college recruiting event).It's form fitting, sophisticated and sexy, but youthful and modern at the same time.
S continues to favour this style later in the season for Thanksgiving. Granted the skirt is overly tight and short and not exactly the most flattering dress on her (or on anyone I should think), you can see how the concept and style is very similar. And thus, the "S dress."In particular, we are loving this two toned dress by FCUK (left). I love this yellow/black contrast, while HG is thinking of the red/gray-or silver combo. The contrast and shapes makes it cute, colorful and young, but the style and cutting lends it sophistication. It is dressy enough for a nice dinner, but not so formal that you can't drop by a club afterwards. It's really quite a clever design! Sadly for me, I must be deformed, because I tried it on the other day and the fit was way off. While everywhere else fitted tightly (so tightly in fact that I couldn't even twist to zip up!), the chest part was loose. HG is still in love though and she's thinking of getting it tailored.

We also found a very similar version of this dress over at Ted Baker, though with the white t shirt top, it is much more casual and is perfect for a day out.

Image Source: Gossip Girl, ASOS and FCUK

Sunday 23 November 2008

ANTM Cycle 11- Spoiler!

At this point, I think I've come to accept ANTM as part of my life. Something I just mindlessly watch when it's on. You must admit, it's a nice indulgence. *spoiler alert*
Now that I've "come around" to this way of thinking, my expectations are lower and thus I thought this season's show was not bad! There was a bit of drama, there were pretty pictures, some cool themes (voting booths, award accidents, underwater eye level shots, hanging on hot air balloons etc), a bit of traveling (to Amsterdam)and some sweet prizes. They had fashion show opp prizes, shopping sprees and free designer clothes- it was pretty awesome! The window display challenge in the red light district of Amsterdam was refreshing. Plus they had a REALLY gorgeous Willy Wonka like pink runway in the finale. There was a mini "hill" at the beginning and the models had to run up it in their heels (otherwise they'd fall backwards), it was quite an entertaining scene! Though I thought at the beginning the whole space theme thing and turning a new leaf because it's the 11th cycle was a bit overplayed.
And the winner of Cycle 11 of ANTM is- McKey. She does have very stunning modelesque features and towards the end, I thought her pictures were one of the strongest.
I mean, you got to admit, she has definitely improved from her first photo at the voting booth. It looked like she had no idea....
...and then bam! Here we are. I thought she had some of the most interesting and varied poses in her shoots. She always tried new things and they worked. And did I mention her amazing features? Once they got to final 2, it was obvious who the winner is. Granted she's not who I was vouching for, I thought out of the two she deserved to win (she was a bit too tomboy for me and her walk was a bit "lurch" like as they said). By the way, I thought renaming herself McKey at the beginning was a genius move. It is SO much more interesting and memorable than Brittany.
As you may be able to tell by now, Sam wasn't my favourite girl. Everyone else loved her though, because she had the whole sunny, free California girl next door personality. Maybe I just prefer more serious, subdue personalities. Also, she just didn't LOOK like a model to me, because this girl absolutely cannot dress herself for her life. I still remember that horrible salmon colored v neck sweater and straight skirt she wore to panel, that even Tyra couldn't do anything *shiver*. I also didn't think this picture was as "all that" as all the judges thought. Though I didn't realize that she had only just turned 18 on the show, so I guess I should cut her some slack. Making it into the top 2 is pretty good (her walk was not much better than McKey's).
My favourite girl was Analeigh. Maybe I just have a preference for girls with long hair? She was just so SWEET. I loved her personality. She was sweet and cute in a more subdue and quiet kind of way. She also improved dramatically. I remember how she struggled at the beginning and I totally thought she'd be sent home. Her hot air balloon picture was absolutely tragic. Her legs look cut off.
But then she survived being in the bottom two and she finally got the hang of modelling. This is my favourite picture of her. You can see the skater in her and it's so edgy even though she looks so sweet normally. Another thing I loved about her was that she knew how to dress. She's mastered the shift dress and I'm amazed at how versatile her peace pendant was with all her outfits! Too bad about the Cover Girl commercial. It really was quite awful, especially considering how she ROCKED the other commercial! A strong contestant that got weak in the end was Marjorie. I think she actually has that natural model potential that would lead her far in the real world, just not in the world of reality TV. She has that perfect awkwardness and European-ness that makes her so model- she looks modelesque just STANDING there in her windmill photo. Just don't put her in any role where she needs to speak. Her jitters really would not work... But she DOES take some AMAZING photos. I loved this one here. It is so completely convincing! Though she was visibly weaker when she turned a "new leaf," like she lost her natural ability to model (though at times I found her hunchback signature pose a bit too much and she really looks like the hunchback of Notre Dame!).

Another contestant of note was Elina, the control freak. She started out strong and she thought she was so good, but her pictures were getting a bit monotonous. The whole cultural difference and Europeans don't express themselves was a bit too much. Clarke also did not see her elimination coming after she got best photo at the under water eye level shot. I liked Sheena and how she didn't play the whole Asian card on us like Gina did. Nikeysha reminded me of Saleisha, except Saleisha is pretty IMO (they even have the same haircut and similar names!). I remember being surprised by the whole drama with Hannah even though I don't quite remember why anymore (race?). Oh and of course there was Isis. She was strong at first! I'm very impressed with how feminine she looked given that she was a man. Her attitude was also very open, brave and admirable. Wasn't there a really similar contestant before, who kind of looked like her too, took great pictures at first and then dwindled?

I liked how they showed little clips of what other contestants from past cycles are doing now in between too. It's interesting to be reminded of them and see what they're doing now. It sounds like a lot of them signed with Elite anyway, even though they didn't win. Are Elite contracts that hard to come by then?

Image Source: CWTV
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